Archive for December, 2009

GET TO KNOW THE NORTH FORK – NEW YORK’S WINE COUNTRY

Saturday, December 26th, 2009
North Fork Merlot

Some 1.5 hours outside of New York City, some 20 minutes from most of the Hamptons,  by car, by Hampton Jitney or by Long Island Railroad, you will find the North Fork…. a tiny peninsula accross the Peconic Bay from its famous South Fork, the Hamptons. (click for a Map of the North Fork) 

Many New Yorkers call the North Fork their best kept secret: a place to live while working in the City, or a place for a second home and enjoy the good things of life. The North Fork is surrounded by water, the Long Island Sound on the North, with spectacular homes overlooking the dunes and high bluffs towards Connecticut. To the South the North Fork encounters the Peconic Bay The Bay’s topography is characterized by many creeks and inlets allowing for many waterfront homes with their own (deep water) docks, with access to what many consider the world’s nicest fishing grounds for Sea Bass, Fluke and Bluefish; Reydon Shoresclams and lobsters are plentiful and the burgeoning oyster industry is famous on menues at the best restaurants not just locally, or in the City, but recently even worldwide. And through Shennecock you can reach the Atlantic’s best fishing grounds (The Canyon)  for sportsfishing and some of the most delicous Tuna – in itself a reason to come visit the North Fork if you like eating fish. To the South, the Bay between the Hamptons and the North Fork is called Peconic Bay, home to many charming and old whaling ports (Orient, Greenport)  with its charming whaling villages (Orient and Greenport), and the Tip of the North Fork point into the Atlantic Ocean. 

The Long Island Wine Council can provide you with information on all vineyards: lots off family fun atMartha Clara Vineyards, but certainly do not leave the Island without tasting some of the local Champagnes. 

I will be atSparkling Point this New Year’s eve… a great new vineyard at Hortons Lane and the North Road in Southold, and great members of the Community.And for a serious Beautiful local Merlot: try the Macari Bergen Road Merlot…

The North Fork has succeeded in maintaining its rural, agricultural character, with a life style many modern cisitzens of the World aspire to: eat and drink local foods and wine, and be connected to the soil! We have come far from the days of endless potato farms – the potatoes left are now the finest only! But Satur Farms and Sang Lee Farms show how specialty farming can succeed: they now are purveyors of the finest and most delicious and healthy produce served in top restaurants.

There’s lots to do on the North Fork. Check this blog out for current affairs and stuff to do in this great place:

For New Years Eve: The restaurants are providing a great wealth of quality places to be romantic or to see and be seen. The crew of "The Romantics" (Tom Cruise and Katie Holmes, Murphy Brown’s Candice Bergen and Elijah Wood were seen hanging out in Greenport at FOB and the Frisky Oyster – for the celebrity watchers among you). And some local gossip: Dennis Mc Dermott sold his famous and successful restaurant and one of my favorite places to hang out: the Frisky Oyster in Greenport. New Year’s will be his last night, and we wish his chef success after taking over. And the FOB is sold to Noah, the chef of the Seafood Barge.  Change is good!

So come be a part of the North Fork and check things out. Stay a while, and let me and Nicholas at Town and Country help you find a place to stay more permanently if you like! We look forward to meeting you and introducing you to our local friends.

HOME SALES & PRICES SHOWING FURTHER STABILITY

Wednesday, December 23rd, 2009

Wall Street Journal — front page– , lead story on all business news networks…

National Association of Realtors yesterday said existing home sales rose 7.4% in November from October’s seasonally adjusted annual rate of 6.54 million units. This was the highest rate posted since February 2007.

Approximately 50% of these sales were to first time home buyers taking advantage of the tax credit available to them.

Low interest rate further fueled this jump in home sales.

Federal Housing Finance Agency’s index rose 0.6% in October compared to November. The FHFA index tracks the purchase price of homes backed by Fannie & Freddie. The S&P/ Case Shiller Home Price Index, another closely watched measure of home prices also shows improvement.

Keep in mind these are National figures. On a local level, we have seen heightened activity since August. That sales activity is remaining steady even through the holiday season– a time of year which is historically quiet for real estate deal making. Not so in 2009– there are many very savoy investors and home buyers jumping in to find the water temp perfect!

HOUSING OFF THE BOTTOM!

Tuesday, December 15th, 2009

According to the Mortgage Banker’s Association, applications for home purchase loans shot up 42% last week on a non-seasonally adjusted basis compared with the week before. All this during the ordinarily quiet holiday season.

A sure sign buyers are jumping ‘off the fence’ and pulling the trigger.

The indicators are all supporting this decision to jump into the homeownership pool. Interest rates are at an all time low (with an expected increase in 2010), inventory is healthy (yet being absorbed at the fastest pase in over a year), first time home buyer credits of up to $8,000, $6500 tax credit for qualified buyers, prices reduced in most markets (but stabilized in many markets), and a market condition in favor of the buyer!

Frddie Mac declared home prices nation wide rose about 1 point on average during the 3rd quarter and 4th quarter activity has been even better.

Realty Trac states there was an 8% drop in November’s filings of delinquencies and foreclosures across the country. November makes the 4th month of declines in such filings.

Seller’s are ready, buyers are ready and brokers are ready…. let’s go shopping

MORTGAGE MARKET WEEKLY UPDATE

Monday, December 14th, 2009
the newsletter, or would like to view it online, use this link If you have received this newsletter indirectly and would like to be added to our weekly distribution list, use this link
The Manhattan Mortgage Company Mortgage Weekly Update
Eve Robin Jarrett
MANAGING DIRECTOR
Senior Mortgage Consultant
Manhattan Mortgage
Office: 631-324-1555 x 25
Blackberry:
e-Fax:
Email: EJarrett@manhattanmortgage.com
631-514-3654
631-697-3366
Eve Robin Jarrett

For the week of Dec 14, 2009 // Vol. 7, Issue 50
 

  Last Week in Review  


     
 

"IT’S A RECESSION WHEN YOUR NEIGHBOR LOSES HIS JOB; IT’S A DEPRESSION WHEN YOU LOSE YOURS." Harry S. Truman. Very true words indeed – and last week brought some market action when Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke discussed the recession, commenting that our economic recovery still faces "formidable headwinds." As you can see in the chart below, the current recession we have been in has been the longest in nearly half a century.

———————–
Chart: Post World War II Recessions

And because negative economic comments or news causes money to flow out of Stocks and into Bonds, Bernanke’s words helped Bonds and home loan rates to improve early last week…but these improvements were short lived.

Bond prices and home loan rates responded poorly to the Treasury auctions of last week, as the Treasury instruments being auctioned off are in direct competition with Mortgage Backed Securities…and the continual record amounts of supply hitting the market requires record amounts of buying to take place as well. And remember – the Federal Reserve is winding down their Mortgage Backed Security purchasing program, so as they stretch out and ration their remaining purchases through the first quarter of next year, the reduced amount of their buying just adds to the problem.

And as with any item, when there is lots of supply and diminishing demand – Economics 101 tells us that the price of that item will subsequently go down. So as Bond prices go down, home loan rates go up – and last week saw home loan rates increase by at least .125% across the board.

Also adding to selling pressure on Bonds in the latter part of last week were several bits of good economic news. First, the Retail Sales Report for November was better than expected, marking the third monthly increase over the past four months. It appears that lower prices and good deals are helping to spur some buying activity, though it remains to be seen how this will impact retailers’ bottom lines. Consumer Sentiment was also reported quite a bit better than expected.

AND SPEAKING OF RETAIL SALES AND CONSUMER SENTIMENT – ARE YOU STILL WONDERING HOW TO WISELY SPEND YOUR HARD EARNED DOLLARS WHILE HOLIDAY SHOPPING THIS YEAR…AND STILL FEEL GREAT ABOUT HAVING GIVEN A GREAT GIFT? CHECK OUT THIS WEEK’S MORTGAGE MARKET VIEW FOR GREAT HOLIDAY GIFT IDEAS UNDER $25.

 
 

  Forecast for the Week  


     
 

Last week may have been a slow one when it comes to economic reports, but the week ahead is full of action, beginning with Tuesday’s Producer Price Index (PPI) Report, which measures inflation at the wholesale level. More inflation news immediately follows with Wednesday’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) Report. Remember that inflation erodes the value of the fixed income that a Bond provides, so any signs of inflation can cause Bond prices and home loan rates to worsen.

Wednesday will also bring a read on the housing market with the Housing Starts and Building Permits Report, as well as the Interest Rate Decision and Policy Statement from the Fed, following the end of their regularly scheduled Federal Open Market Committee meeting. A change in rates isn’t expected – but any comments about inflation in the Policy Statement could rattle Bonds and home loan rates.

Also important this week is a look at the manufacturing sector, via Tuesday’s Empire State Index and Thursday’s Philadelphia Fed Report. Manufacturing reports have been all over the boards lately, but a marked improvement in either of these reports could cause Stocks to move higher, and in turn, hurt Bonds and home loan rates. Also in store for Thursday is another look at the weekly Initial Jobless Claims Report. Last week’s Continuing Jobless Claims fell to the lowest level since February, and while at first blush this decline would appear to be a good thing, it is likely that the numbers are reflective of people accepting part time or seasonal work that won’t last after the holidays.

Remember: Weak economic news normally causes money to flow out of Stocks and into Bonds, helping Bonds and home loan rates improve, while strong economic news normally has the opposite result. As you can see in the chart below, Bonds and rates worsened after last week’s Treasury auctions. I’ll be watching carefully to see if Bonds and rates can muster an improving rally this week in the face of a heavy news week.

Chart: Fannie Mae 4.5%% Mortgage Bond (Friday Dec 11, 2009)

Japanese Candlestick Chart
 
 

  The Mortgage Market View…  


     
 

Best Holiday Gifts for Under $25

The holiday season can be a strain on your pocketbook. Considering the current economic climate, it may be even more apparent this year than in the recent past. But there are still plenty of inexpensive holiday gifts you can give this year – even for under $25 – that will help ring in the holiday cheer!

Godiva Chocolate – Godiva offers a number of chocolate selections for under $25. It’s not only a delicious product, but receiving chocolate in a little gold box is about as iconic as receiving jewelry in a little blue box. Visit

Bottle of Wine – A bottle of wine is a great gift of holiday cheer. And for $25, you can buy a nice bottle.

Christmas Tree Ornament – This gift is obviously contingent on the recipient celebrating Christmas. Nonetheless, it is a thoughtful present that can be kept forever. Depending on the ornament, some can be personalized with engraved messages, as well as the year they were purchased.

Lottery Tickets - This is another inexpensive gift you should consider. The idea of scratching off 25 lottery tickets can be a lot of fun. The gift gets even better if a number of the lottery tickets pay off. Tuck them inside a thoughtful card and you’re all set.

French Press Coffee Pot – Every true coffee lover should have a French Press pot. And even if they already have one, they’ll probably enjoy another one to keep in separate locations or to be used simultaneously for larger get-togethers.

A Journal and a Pen – One does not have to be a writer in order to find countless uses for a journal and a pen.

A Board Game – From single folks to families, board games provide the perfect entertainment at a gathering with friends, or even a quiet weekend night at home.

Homemade Gift Basket – Putting together a gift basket for someone allows you to tailor the gift precisely to the interests of the person who’s receiving it. Gift basket themes are limitless and can fit into any budget.

Bath and Body Gifts – Everyone can use a little bit of pampering from time to time. With the variety of scented lotions and shower gels available today, you’re sure to find something within your budget.

Times may be tough, but that doesn’t mean you need to completely forgo the tradition of holiday gift buying. You just have to be a bit more creative. Happy shopping…and happy holidays.

www.Godiva.com to see the various selections.

 
 

  The Week’s Economic Indicator Calendar  

     
 
Remember, as a general rule, weaker than expected economic data is good for rates, while positive data causes rates to rise.

Economic Calendar for the Week of December 14 – December 18

Date
ET
Economic Report
For
Estimate
Actual
Prior
Impact
Tue. December 15
08:30
Core Producer Price Index (PPI)
Nov
0.2%
 
-0.6%
Moderate
Tue. December 15
08:30
Producer Price Index (PPI)
Nov
0.8%
 
0.3%
Moderate
Tue. December 15
08:30
Empire State Index
Dec
25.00
 
23.51
Moderate
Tue. December 15
09:15
Capacity Utilization
Nov
71.1%
 
70.7%
Moderate
Tue. December 15
09:15
Industrial Production
Nov
0.6%
 
0.1%
Moderate
Wed. December 16
02:15
FOMC Meeting
12/16
 
 
0.25%
HIGH
Wed. December 16
10:30
Crude Inventories
12/11
NA
 
-3.82M
Moderate
Wed. December 16
08:30
Core Consumer Price Index (CPI)
Nov
0.1%
 
0.3%
HIGH
Wed. December 16
08:30
Consumer Price Index (CPI)
Nov
NA
 
0.2%
HIGH
Wed. December 16
08:30
Housing Starts
Nov
578K
 
529K
Moderate
Wed. December 16
08:30
Building Permits
Nov
570K
 
552K
Moderate
Thu. December 17
08:30
Jobless Claims (Initial)
12/5
465K
 
474K
Moderate
Thu. December 17
10:00
Index of Leading Econ Ind (LEI)
Nov
0.7%
 
0.3%
Low
Thu. December 17
10:00
Philadelphia Fed Index
Dec
16.0
 
16.7
HIGH
 
 

 
 

Eve Robin Jarrett
Manhattan Mortgage
75 Main Street, 2nd Floor
East Hampton, NY 11937

 
 

EXISTING HOME SALES SURGE 10.1%

Tuesday, December 1st, 2009

Existing-home sales, which include single-family, townhouses, condominiums and co-ops, rose 10.1% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 6.1 million units in October from 5.54 million in September… and 23.5% more than the 4.94 million units sold in October 2008. This is the greatest pace since it hit 6.55 million in February 2007.

Here in the Northeast existing-home sales increased 11.6% to 1.06 million in October. This is 28% higher than the previous year.

All good news for the US economy as sales of existing homes result in an increase in materials, labor and therefor increased owner equity, jobs and consumer spending.

The National Association of Realtors cheif economist, Lawrence Yun, surmised, "Many buyers have been rushing to beat the deadline for the first time buyer tax credit that was scheduled to expire at the end of this month {this has since been extended}, and similarly robust sales may be occuring in November. With such a sale spike, a measurable decline should be anticipated in December and early next year before another surge in spring and early summer."

Mr Yun is of course referring to real estate nationally,, it is my opinion that here in the Hamptons & North Fork we will experience another surge in the 1st quarter of 2010 due to Wall Street bonuses.

WEEKLY MORTGAGE MARKET UPDATE

Tuesday, December 1st, 2009
The Manhattan Mortgage Company Mortgage Weekly Update
Eve Robin Jarrett
MANAGING DIRECTOR
Senior Mortgage Consultant
Manhattan Mortgage
Office: 631-324-1555 x 25
Blackberry:
e-Fax:
Email: EJarrett@manhattanmortgage.com
631-514-3654
631-697-3366
Eve Robin Jarrett

For the week of Nov 30, 2009 // Vol. 7, Issue 48
 

  Last Week in Review  


     
 

I hope you enjoyed a wonderful Thanksgiving weekend with friends and family. I certainly have much to be thankful for, including many wonderful clients and friends like you.

As your Trusted Advisor, I sincerely hope you’ve been enjoying your complimentary subscription to The Mortgage Market Guide Weekly. Your next full issue will arrive "hot off the press" next week. In the meantime, please enjoy the video link below.

The Mortgage Market Guide Weekly is the industry’s leading publication of this type, and I’m pleased to provide this valuable resource to you. If you feel that any of your clients, friends, family members or associates would benefit from keeping up-to-date on market and economic trends with this easy-to-read format, please let me know, and I will be happy to add them free of charge.

Best wishes to you.

 
 

  The Mortgage Market View…  


     
 

This time of year is all about reflection. Taking the time to take in and consider the blessings in our lives-from family and friends to education and opportunity. But it’s also a time to renew our spirits and souls, especially as we prepare to head into the bustling holiday season and a new year.

One of the best ways that I’ve found to reflect upon my blessings and the opportunities before me is to view this

I hope you had a happy Thanksgiving and that this video helps you hold those blessings in your heart throughout the year.

If you need any assistance during this special time of year, please call or write. I’m always happy to make time for wonderful clients and friends like you.

special video from Power of Attitude. This video contains emotional and inspirational messages combined with powerful images of beauty.

 
 

  The Week’s Economic Indicator Calendar  

     
 
Remember, as a general rule, weaker than expected economic data is good for rates, while positive data causes rates to rise.

Economic Calendar for the Week of November 30 – December 04

Date
ET
Economic Report
For
Estimate
Actual
Prior
Impact
Mon. November 30
09:45
Chicago PMI
Nov
53.3
56.1
54.2
HIGH
Tue. December 01
10:00
ISM Index
Nov
55.0
53.6
55.7
HIGH
Tue. December 01
10:00
Pending Home Sales
Oct
-1.0%
3.7%
6.0%
Moderate
Wed. December 02
08:15
ADP National Employment Report
Nov
-148K
 
-203K
HIGH
Wed. December 02
10:30
Crude Inventories
11/27
NA
 
1.02M
Moderate
Wed. December 02
02:00
Beige Book
 
 
 
 
Moderate
Thu. December 03
08:30
Employment Cost Index (ECI)
Q4
0.4%
 
0.4%
Moderate
Thu. December 03
08:30
Productivity
Q3
8.5%
 
9.5%
Moderate
Thu. December 03
08:30
Jobless Claims (Initial)
11/28
483K
 
466K
Moderate
Thu. December 03
10:00
ISM Services Index
Nov
51.5
 
50.6
Moderate
Fri. December 04
08:30
Non-farm Payrolls
Nov
-120K
 
-190K
HIGH
Fri. December 04
08:30
Unemployment Rate
Nov
10.2%
 
10.2%
HIGH
Fri. December 04
08:30
Average Work Week
Nov
33.1
 
33.0
HIGH
Fri. December 04
08:30
Hourly Earnings
Nov
0.2%
 
0.3%
HIGH
 
 

 
 

Eve Robin Jarrett
Manhattan Mortgage
75 Main Street, 2nd Floor
East Hampton, NY 11937